Publications

You can also find my articles on my Google Scholar profile.

Journal Articles

Crypto Shadow Banking: Stablecoins, Crypto Assets and Capital Controls

Published in Job Market Paper, 2025

Job Market Paper - Developed a large-scale LLM- and text-based crypto exposure dataset from U.S. public firms’ financial filings (10-K, 8-K, and 20-F; 4,696 firm-year observations, 2015–2025) to detect hidden digital-asset exposure, stablecoin usage, and crypto-based capital-control bypassing behavior. - Using Probit/Logit regressions, showed that balance-sheet proxies such as intangible assets and inventories predict crypto-related corporate activities. These proxies increase significantly following capital-control and equity-market intervention shocks, revealing the rise of “crypto shadow banking” as a substitute channel for cross-border liquidity. - Provided a quantitative model assessing the impact of crypto shadow banking on the stability of the financial system.

Recommended citation: G. Sun. (2025). "Crypto Shadow Banking: Stablecoins, Crypto Assets and Capital Controls." Job Market Paper.

Stablecoins: A Revolutionary Payment Technology with Financial Risks

Published in NBER Working Paper No. 34475, 2025

A study of stablecoins as an emerging payment technology and the financial-stability risks they introduce. Published as an NBER Working Paper (No. 34475).

Recommended citation: Ahmed, R., Clouse, J. A., Natalucci, F., Rebucci, A., and Sun, G. (2025). "Stablecoins: A Revolutionary Payment Technology with Financial Risks." NBER Working Paper No. 34475, National Bureau of Economic Research.
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An LLM-based Survey of Stablecoin Podcasts

Published in SSRN, 2025

Applies large language models to transcribe and analyze thousands of stablecoin podcast episodes, constructing structured measures of sentiment, regulatory views, and key themes. Available at SSRN.

Recommended citation: Ahmed, R., Rebucci, A., and Sun, G. (2025). "An LLM-based Survey of Stablecoin Podcasts." SSRN, October 19, 2025. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5628451
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Learning to Regulate: A New Event-Level Dataset of Capital Control Measures

Published in arXiv:2505.23025 (Working Paper, The Journal of Finance and Data Science), 2025

Working paper of The Journal of Finance and Data Science - Constructed a global event-level dataset of 5,198 capital control measures (1999–2023, 196 countries) using LLM extraction and finetuning based on IMF AREAER reports. - Applied event-study methods and found strong cross-country heterogeneity in capital-flow sensitivity; global shocks (↑VIX, USD appreciation) raise the likelihood of inflow restrictions, while domestic FX pressure and current-account imbalances lead to outflow controls. - Develops a dataset and empirical framework to forecast capital-account interventions under different macro-financial environments, contributing to capital-flow management analysis.

Recommended citation: Sun, G., Liu, X., Williams, T., et al. (2025). "Learning to Regulate: A New Event-Level Dataset of Capital Control Measures." arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.23025.
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Carry Trade and the Theoretical Framework of “Impossible Trinity” Theory: An Empirical Analysis Based on TVP-SV-VAR

Published in Finance Forum, 2022

This paper evaluated China’s capital account liberalization and exchange rate marketization by integrating carry trade into the Impossible Trinity framework. Built a theoretical model and using TVP-SV-VAR analysis to examine the short- and long-term impulse responses between carry trade, capital controls, exchange rate stability, and monetary policy independence. Findings revealed that carry trade significantly impacts the independence of monetary policy, supporting a phased approach to capital account liberalization, starting with Portfolio Investment, followed by Financial Derivatives and FDI accounts.

Recommended citation: 郭桂霞,and 孙歌悦."人民币套息交易与“三元悖论”理论框架——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究." 金融论坛 27.11(2022):10-20. doi:10.16529/j.cnki.11-4613/f.2022.11.003.
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Impact of the Opening of Shanghai Free Trade Area on the Port Economy in Hong Kong

Published in China Circulation Economy, 2017

Investigated the impact of the Shanghai Free Trade Area (FTA) on Hong Kong’s port economy using a Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach and border analysis. The analysis revealed a crowding-out effect of the Shanghai FTA on Hong Kong’s import-export market, attributed to Hong Kong’s dependence on sales and import volume rather than production innovation and R&D capabilities.

Recommended citation: G. Sun. Impact of the Opening of Shanghai Free Trade Area on the Port Economy in Hong Kong China, Circulation Economy, 2017

Conference Papers

Bypassing Capital Interventions: Carry Trades via Commodity Futures Market

Published in 2024 Southern Economics Association (SEA) 94th Annual Meeting, 2024

Advisor: Prof. Tomas Williams
This project investigates commodity carry trade in developing countries, testing two key hypotheses: 1. Commodity liquidity risk reduces carry trade returns (impact: -0.226) 2. Capital controls amplify the negative impact of liquidity risk
A Staggered-DID model is employed using 4,000 daily capital intervention events from the Global Trade Alert (GTA) dataset. A Large Language Model (LLM) extracts regional information from 25,035 commodity contracts (Refinitiv), which is merged with Bloomberg’s carry trade returns to analyze liquidity risk’s effect on returns. The project’s findings were presented at the 2024 SEA Annual Meeting, offering new insights into the commodity-carry trade market equilibrium.

Recommended citation: G. Sun. (2024). "Bypassing Capital Interventions: Carry Trades via Commodity Futures Market." 2024 Southern Economics Association (SEA) 94th Annual Meeting.
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Geyue(Grace) Sun