Current Projects

Daily Capital Control Index: Powered by Machine Learning

Joint work with: Prof. Roberto Samaniego This project focuses on the development of a high-frequency Daily Capital Control Index for 119 countries, spanning from January 1, 2000, to the present. The index tracks six categories of capital account interventions, offering a real-time tool for the tracking and analysis of global capital control policies. By providing timely and granular insights, the index serves as a critical resource for researchers, policymakers, and market participants seeking to understand cross-country differences in capital control measures. To ensure precision, the index employs machine learning techniques, including Linear Regression and LASSO, trained on the Ka-open Index from the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER). The project also includes the development of a comprehensive dataset and a user-friendly website that enables real-time updates and dynamic access to the dataset, facilitating seamless access to up-to-date capital control information.

Bypassing Capital Interventions: Carry Trades via Commodity Futures Market

November 21, 2024

Talk, 2024 Southern Economics Association (SEA) 94th Annual Meeting,

Advisor: Prof. Tomas Williams

  • Conducted empirical research on commodity carry trade in developing countries, testing two key hypotheses:
    1. Commodity liquidity risk significantly reduces carry trade returns (estimated impact: -0.226).
    2. The negative impact of liquidity risk is amplified by capital controls.
  • Utilized a Staggered-DID model to investigate bypass mechanisms in response to diverse capital control policies. The analysis was based on daily capital intervention data (4,000 events) from the Global Trade Alert (GTA) dataset.
  • Built a Large Language Model (LLM) to extract regional information from 25,035 commodity contracts in the Refinitiv dataset. Merged this with Bloomberg’s daily carry trade returns to assess the influence of liquidity risk on carry trade returns and develop a quantitative model for the commodity-carry trade market equilibrium.
  • Presented at the 2024 Southern Economics Association (SEA) 94th Annual Meeting on November 2024.