Research Experiences
Below are my research projects and papers. Selected drafts and slides are linked; others are available upon request.
Joint work with: Prof. Roberto Samaniego This project focuses on the development of a high-frequency Daily Capital Control Index for 119 countries, spanning from January 1, 2000, to the present. The index tracks six categories of capital account interventions, offering a real-time tool for the tracking and analysis of global capital control policies. By providing timely and granular insights, the index serves as a critical resource for researchers, policymakers, and market participants seeking to understand cross-country differences in capital control measures. To ensure precision, the index employs machine learning techniques, including Linear Regression and LASSO, trained on the Ka-open Index from the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER). The project also includes the development of a comprehensive dataset and a user-friendly website that enables real-time updates and dynamic access to the dataset, facilitating seamless access to up-to-date capital control information.
December 01, 2025
Job Market Paper, 2025,
Job Market Paper · Advisor: Prof. Tomas Williams
- Developed a large-scale LLM- and text-based crypto exposure dataset from U.S. public firms’ financial filings (10-K, 8-K, and 20-F; 4,696 firm-year observations, 2015–2025) to detect hidden digital-asset exposure, stablecoin usage, and crypto-based capital-control bypassing behavior.
- Using Probit/Logit regressions, showed that balance-sheet proxies such as intangible assets and inventories predict crypto-related corporate activity, and that these proxies rise significantly following capital-control and equity-market intervention shocks — revealing the rise of “crypto shadow banking” as a substitute channel for cross-border liquidity.
- Built a quantitative model assessing the impact of crypto shadow banking on the stability of the financial system.
November 01, 2025
NBER Working Paper No. 34475, National Bureau of Economic Research,
NBER Working Paper No. 34475 · with R. Ahmed, J. A. Clouse, F. Natalucci, and A. Rebucci · work conducted during my Economist Internship at the Andersen Institute of Finance and Economics
- Studied stablecoins as an emerging payment technology and the financial-stability risks they introduce for monetary policy, cross-border flows, and market structure.
- Designed and implemented an audio-input LLM pipeline (Whisper transcription + GPT-4o/Claude multi-prompt analysis + Python post-processing) to convert thousands of stablecoin podcast episodes into structured data on sentiment, regulatory views, and key themes.
- Read the paper on NBER »
October 19, 2025
Working Paper, SSRN,
SSRN Working Paper · with R. Ahmed and A. Rebucci
- Applied large language models to transcribe and analyze thousands of stablecoin podcast episodes, constructing structured measures of sentiment, regulatory views, and key themes in the stablecoin discourse.
- Demonstrated how audio-native LLM pipelines can turn unstructured media into research-grade datasets for economics and finance.
- Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5628451
September 01, 2025
Working Paper (in progress), 2025,
Working Paper (in progress)
- Constructed a novel AI Belief Index (AIBI) using decentralized prediction-market data (Polymarket) to quantify collective expectations about AI-related technological, valuation, and regulatory events.
- Combined on-chain probability data, LLM-based text sentiment (Refinitiv News), and market prices to measure real-time belief formation and speculative intensity during the 2023–2025 AI investment boom.
- Employed VAR, bubble-detection (GSADF), and forecasting regressions to show that AIBI surges anticipate asset-price accelerations and correction phases in AI equities and ETFs, offering early-warning implications for financial stability.
May 23, 2025
Working Paper, arXiv:2505.23025,
Working Paper — under review at The Journal of Finance and Data Science · with X. Liu, T. Williams, et al.
- Constructed a global event-level dataset of 5,198 capital control measures (1999–2023, 196 countries) using LLM extraction and finetuning based on IMF AREAER reports.
- Applied event-study and time-series/ML methods: global shocks (↑VIX, USD appreciation) raise the likelihood of inflow restrictions, while domestic FX pressure and current-account imbalances lead to outflow controls.
- Provides an empirical framework to forecast capital-account interventions under different macro-financial environments. Read on arXiv »
November 21, 2024
Talk, 2024 Southern Economics Association (SEA) 94th Annual Meeting,
Advisor: Prof. Tomas Williams
- Conducted empirical research on commodity carry trade in developing countries, testing two key hypotheses:
- Commodity liquidity risk significantly reduces carry trade returns (estimated impact: -0.226).
- The negative impact of liquidity risk is amplified by capital controls.
- Utilized a Staggered-DID model to investigate bypass mechanisms in response to diverse capital control policies. The analysis was based on daily capital intervention data (4,000 events) from the Global Trade Alert (GTA) dataset.
- Built a Large Language Model (LLM) to extract regional information from 25,035 commodity contracts in the Refinitiv dataset. Merged this with Bloomberg’s daily carry trade returns to assess the influence of liquidity risk on carry trade returns and develop a quantitative model for the commodity-carry trade market equilibrium.
- Presented at the 2024 Southern Economics Association (SEA) 94th Annual Meeting on November 2024.
November 05, 2022
Journal Article, Finance Forum,
Published in Finance Forum (2022) · with Prof. Guixia Guo
- Evaluated China’s capital-account liberalization and exchange-rate marketization by integrating carry trade into the Impossible Trinity framework.
- Built a theoretical model and used TVP-SV-VAR analysis of the short- and long-run impulse responses among carry trade, capital controls, exchange-rate stability, and monetary-policy independence.
- Findings support a phased approach to capital-account liberalization, beginning with portfolio investment, followed by financial derivatives and FDI accounts.
May 01, 2017
Journal Article, China Circulation Economy,
Published in China Circulation Economy (2017)
- Investigated the impact of the Shanghai Free Trade Area (FTA) on Hong Kong’s port economy using a Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach and border analysis.
- Revealed a crowding-out effect of the Shanghai FTA on Hong Kong’s import-export market, attributed to Hong Kong’s dependence on sales and import volume rather than production innovation and R&D.
